Scattered Brilliance

From my brain to paper (or pixels as the case may be)

New post up at MVN.com’s Red Sox beat

You can check it here:  http://mvn.com/mlb-redsox/2008/02/19/2008-red-sox-for-better-or-worse/

Here’s a little teaser:

So with a better lineup and a less dominant pitching staff, where does that leave the Red Sox next season? In the chart above, I turned to Pythagorean Win Expectancy and plugged in my runs scored and runs against ballparks to settle in with 98 wins. You can also see Baseball Prospectus’ slightly more scientific run +/- predictions and outcome using PECOTA numbers.

Realistically, I think Pythagoras does us a bit wrong here and overestimates wins based on this input, but I do think that PECOTA short changes the team by a few wins. So for my final answer, “for better or worse”, I think the 2008 team is every bit as good as the 2007 version.

My gut: About the same. While Pythagoras has me at 98 wins, that feels aggressive, but I think back to back 96 win seasons and A.L. East banners sound pretty good to me. So mark it down. 96-66, 1st place in the American League East, 2nd best record in baseball behind the New York Mets.

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