Scattered Brilliance

From my brain to paper (or pixels as the case may be)

Archive for baseball

Red Sox podcast Episode #3 at MVN

Paul and I recorded episode 3 of  our Fireside Chats Red Sox podcast at MVN last night.  If you want to check it out here’s the link and the audio is embedded below.

I also completed my Wisdom of Crowds Red Sox 2008 player projections.  The results and my thoughts can be found on MVN as well.


New post up at’s Red Sox beat

You can check it here:

Here’s a little teaser:

So with a better lineup and a less dominant pitching staff, where does that leave the Red Sox next season? In the chart above, I turned to Pythagorean Win Expectancy and plugged in my runs scored and runs against ballparks to settle in with 98 wins. You can also see Baseball Prospectus’ slightly more scientific run +/- predictions and outcome using PECOTA numbers.

Realistically, I think Pythagoras does us a bit wrong here and overestimates wins based on this input, but I do think that PECOTA short changes the team by a few wins. So for my final answer, “for better or worse”, I think the 2008 team is every bit as good as the 2007 version.

My gut: About the same. While Pythagoras has me at 98 wins, that feels aggressive, but I think back to back 96 win seasons and A.L. East banners sound pretty good to me. So mark it down. 96-66, 1st place in the American League East, 2nd best record in baseball behind the New York Mets.

Tim Daloisio: Media Mogul

The Daloisio Express is off and rolling! I’ve got new posts up at MVN’s Red Sox and UConn blogs as well as an online radio show appearance booked for tomorrow night.

– Fire Brand of the American League: 2008 Red Sox Bullpen: For Better or Worse
– Husky Connection: It’s all about tempo and we’ve got Tha-beet

    My Husky column is currently being featured on the front page of MVN’s NCAA section.

    I’ll be speaking with the hosts of “On the Field with Colin and Durden” over at BlogTalkRadio live tomorrow at 9:55 pm. You can find the link here to listen live or to hit up the archive of the event the following morning.

    New post up at

    My analysis of the 2008 Red Sox starting rotation is up and can be found at MVN’s Fire Brand of the American League.  I must say that even with Curt Schilling’s injury, I think this team is, as currently constituted, very similar to last year’s rotation.  But I also fully expect them to be active in making a move to upgrade the “Tavarez” spot in the rotation and/or give Clay Buchholz a little more time off than he might currently be allowed.

    My first post at’s Red Sox blog

    Tim at

    My first post over at’s Red Sox blog “Fire Brand of the American League” is up and live.  I take a look at the Red Sox infield heading into 2008 and see how they measure up to the 2007 standard that brought the Red Sox a championship.

    I enter this next stage in writing about the Red Sox with mixed emotions.  It’s sad for me to give the Red Sox Times up, but I can’t commit to that level of management with everything else going on.  Writing for MVN gives me an outlet to fuel my passion for baseball writing and analysis on a much more structured and less all encompassing basis and with a legit top tier grassroots journalism site at that.

    In fact, Peter Gammons recently called Fire Brand and MVN out in a blog post of his own saying;

    “It’s amazing how many club officials read…Fire Brand of the American League.”

    So, I am in good company and good hands for the 2008 season.  You can look for my posts on Friday’s and Tuesday’s for the next month and then once a week at least during the season.

    Lastly, I’d like to thank Evan Brunell who founded and writes for the Fire Brand of the American League for the honor of joining his team.  So thanks!

    Monday Morning Reader

    Each Monday morning, I’ll share with you what’s rolling through the weekend remnants of my Google Reader subscriptions.  From TV, to sports, to tech…I’ve got alot of random feeds that point me in different directions to start the week.

    David Churbuck references an article from that talks about marketing during a recession.

    5. Shift media spending to accountable media. Not because they necessarily perform better, but because investment in them can be justified in terms of return on investment. A heavy bias toward accountable spending is the best way to protect marketing budgets from profit-starved CFOs.

    David points to a likely rise in email and search marketing as they are the pinnacle of accountability.  But I still wonder, is that the short sighted?  I understand the attraction to the items that are likely to push out positive ROI metrics, but does that mean they are truly accountable?  What is the opportunity cost against plucking off the bottom of the funnel?  Would those customers have reached you anyway?  I constantly struggle with the balance of proving your marketing spend by marketing in the places that you know will return a positive metric vs. marketing in the place that will have the most impact on your short/mid/long term bottom line.

    Search is fairly bullet proof at this point.  But having to pony up money to buy branded search terms where a large percentage of ROI comes from just to push people down the funnel in a direction they would have likely taken anyway still irks me.  But I understand it.

    Email marketing however, I don’t neccessarily find effective.  It’s direct response, and managing campaigns against your installed base of customers is a must.  But prospecting using 3rd party or rental lists is a tactic I just don’t get.

    As it turns out, I’ve asked myself these questions for almost 8 years now.  The sad thing is I don’t know that I have any better answers today than I did then, and that people are still asking the same questions as I did then.  The more things change, the more they stay the same…

    Brock for Broglio lists the 101 best fantasy baseball team names.  I may have to revert back to “The Wright Stuff” or branch out to “” this season.  I still love the name the “Funky Cold Mussinas”.  Just brilliant.

    CelticsBlog reacts to the Celtics recent 5-5 stretch with a blueprint for slowing down the C’s.  Hot shooting seems to be the #1 culprit to at least 3 of the recent 5 Celtics’ losses.  That shot yesterday by Turkolou was incredible.

    John Battelle shows us a fun Google trick.  Ever try and find information about Chuck Norris?

    fake chuck

    Google won’t search for Chuck Norris because it knows you don’t find Chuck Norris, he finds you.”

    Absolutely brilliant.

    One more thing that boggled my mind this morning before I start doing peer reviews; check out this article from on the Wii hacking of Johnny Chung Lee.   I doubt I can do this justice and need to think more on the topic before expounding on my own.  But watch this to get a feel for the awesomeness.